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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I can’t remember ever being so confident at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater change with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.