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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.